The Upland South and the election

Here is more evidence that 2008 might be a realigning election:

Below is a map of the Upland South. Consisting of the greater area surrounding Appalachia and the Ozarks, it is bordered to the north by the Rust Belt, to the south by the Deep South and Sun Belt, the Great Plains to the West, and the Tidewater Region and the Southern Eastern Seaboard coastal plains.

Unlike the Deep South, the Upland South consisted of mostly independent smaller farms as opposed to plantations. The "Yeoman" upland farmer owned few or no slaves compared to the Deep South and Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee, and North Carolina did not sucede until after the Attack on Fort Sumter while West Viginia, Missouri, Kentucky, & Maryland remainded in the Union during the Civil War. The below map shows the percentage of African-Americans to the general population, the falloff corresponding to the borders of the "Upland South" correlates to the significantly lower percentage of slave ownership in the antebellum south.
One of the most dominate ethnic groups in this region are the Scotch-Irish (Scots-Irish), known to the rest of the English-speaking world as Ulster Scots. They emigrated to this region largely in the 18th century, predating the 20th century antagonism as a result of the partition of Ireland, but nevertheless associated with the ethnic stereotypes of fierce independence, mistrustful of authority, fierce loyalty to family (Hatfields and the McCoys), and the H-word or the R-word. The areas with the highest concentration of the Scotch-Irish are in Western North Carolina, Eastern Kentucky, most of Tennessee, Western Maryland, most of West Virginia, Western PA, Texas Hill Country, and Panhandle Florida (shown below).
While conflict between the citizens of the tidewater region and the piedmont charecterized much of the history of Colonial Virginia; the political realization in American politics of the Upland South and the Scotch-Irish came with the revolutionary Andrew Jackson. All previous presidents were college graduates and former statesmen and diplomats, with the exception of George Washington. Jackson was born in 1767 the rural uplands of western North Carolina known as the Waxhaws, his parents emigrated from Ireland only two years prior and his father died weeks before he was born. He ran populist campaign as a "man of the people" appealing to disaffected rural voters and their values against "corrupt aristocrats of the East"; similar rhetoric to that of William Jennings Bryan, Barry Goldwater (to an extent), Perot, and Palin.

The above map shows areas which have voted more Republican since 2004. Lest we assume this is a hotbed of virulent right wing politics, I recommend you watch "Harlan County, U.S.A.". The film is about a coal miner strike in the the southeastern most county of Kentucky, one of the darkest red in voting less for Obama than they did Kerry as shown in the above map and also darkest in the below map of poverty. Starting with RFK, politicians on "poverty tours" always include Eastern Kentucky on their map, it was mimicked by John Edwards in 2007 with substantially less public interest. In 1976 it went 60% for Jimmy Carter, in 2004 it went 60% for Bush, and in 2008 72% voted for McCain over Obama.

There is, of course, the first conclusion most people make by looking at that map, racism. An October 27th Washington Post article by Ruth Marcus, "In W.Va., Lingering Doubts on Obama" dealt with sentiments in the southwest corner of West Virginia, reddest in the above maps for politics and poverty. In Mingo County less than a century ago Mother Jones (the person, not the magazine) organized miners there in the "largest organized armed uprising in American labor history". In 1976, Carter carried three-quarters of the vote; Gore won 60% there in 2000, but Obama lost by a margin of 12%, the reverse of the 2004 results for that county. In 1984 when Ronald Reagan carried West Virginia by 11% in his 49-state win the county voted Democrats outnumber Republicans 11:1. The slip from 2000 to 2004 to 2008 is also a biproduct of the citizens being able to relate less and less to the Democratic nominees versus the Republican ticket and the frustration over the loss of the region's prefered candidate, Hillary Clinton. The article's 'man on the street' expressed concern over the possibility Obama is a 'secret Muslim', that "if Obama goes in there the [blacks] are going to go crazy," and that his values differed irreconsilably.

However, for some of the few places Democrats are losing ground, many are also losing population. The below map shows population loss in many of the areas corresponding to longer-term Republican gains. This map covers population changes from 1980-2000, most notably absent is the massive population loss caused by Hurricane Katrina in Southern Louisiana.

Identity, populism, and racism are not the only reasons for the dramatic shift in votes. As alluded to earlier, the traditionally democratic areas that turned more red in Appalachia are "Coal Country". While the Miner's union endorsed Obama, his comments that building coal power plants would bankrupt companies under his administration were exploited to their full extent by Palin at a rally in southern Ohio (McCain co-sponsored legislation which would implement the policy Obama was describing in his errant comments, Cap-and-Trade).

The above map overlays perfectly with all above mentioned sociological, economic, demographic, & political trends. Upland Southern culture, higher Scotch-Irish and lower African-American ratios than the South as a whole, highly Democratic, high poverty rate, high population loss, and coal, all correspond to significant gains by the Republican ticket in 2008 relative to previous presidential elections.