Centrism, pragmatism, and message

Obama ran a more centrist disciplined message than either Gore or Kerry and doesn't attack corporations any more than McCain did. I think that some of Kerry's anti-corporate rhetoric pushed a number of independents away from him... after all, the majority of people work for corporations of some sort. His election shows Americans that though good education, discipline, civic engagement, and by playing by the rules you can get ahead and make a difference, all traditional small 'c' conservative values.

While controlling the house from 1955 to 1995, the democrats moved progressively to the left and a number of people in the party left while the opposite happened with the republicans, that's obviously simplifying it. By the 1990s there were no pro-life Democrats in leadership positions in Congress while there were multiple pro-choice Republicans chairing committees. The 2004 election which resulted further defeats for the Democrats after a slaughter in the 2002 midterm elections. In 2005 Howard Dean, who had run an anti-war left wing campaign that generated a tremendous amount of grassroots support before it finally received mainstream attention and subsequently imploded, took over as the head of the Democratic Party and announced a '50-state strategy' involving staffing and spending millions of dollars on each and every state. The DCCC's and future Chief of Staff Rahm Emmanuel and Chuck Schumer as head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee both criticized the plan but with Indiana, Iowa, Virginia, North Carolina, and Nebraska's Omaha district all going for Obama, Dean's strategy was largely vindicated. Recently, the Democrats also have made the smart move of encouraging more social conservatives in the party again, take for example pro-life Bob Casey who was recruited by Schumer. Look at the relative success of the so-called "Blue-Dog" Democrats, although many are very frustrated with Pelosi's leadership, if more join their coalition I wouldn't be surprised if her leadership were challenged.

Contrast the support of the Blue Dog Coalition with the Republican Main Street Partnership. While the latter has more politically powerful members, it doesn't have the prominence, attention, or grassroots support of the former. Take for example the vigorously fought primary challenges of RMSP members Arlen Spector & Lincoln Chaffee, both extremely well funded by the Club for Growth. While changing the message and allowing more moderates and social liberals into the party is a clear path to building a winning coalition, it's a bit naïve to expect a change anytime soon, particularly as registration shrinks to an 'ideologically pure' base making it nearly impossible for these candidates to win primaries.

I think a good analogy for Sarah Palin would be George McGovern. Her message really connects with millions of Americans, however very few of them would consider voting for Barack Obama in the first place. Many of Palin's most fervent supporters were unsatisfied with John McCain's moderate stances and deeply disappointed by the failures of the Bush administration. Her message resonated with a number of people in the right wing who would be otherwise alienated and disappointed with mainstream politics. Likewise, George McGovern's message resonated with a number of people in the left wing who would be otherwise alienated and disappointed with mainstream politics. The 1972 election however was won by Richard Nixon with the 4th largest margin in history. McGovern said of the election, "I opened the doors of the Democratic Party and 20 million people walked out." To that end, scores of retired Republican politicians, bureaucrats, and officials have endorsed Obama along with a number of conservative columnists.

Obama's legislative record clearly mimics that of a liberal in the McGovern mold but the RNC was much more unsuccessful at painting him as far-left as they did McGovern. During the primary of that year an anonymous democratic senator stated to columnist Bob Novak, "The people don’t know McGovern is for [draft-dodger] amnesty, abortion and legalization of pot, once middle America — Catholic middle America, in particular — finds this out, he’s dead." The slogan "amnesty, abortion and acid" doomed McGovern as fundamentally out of touch with middle America. The effort to link Obama to the radical views of his pastor, his neighbor, Karl Marx, and the man who sold him a parcel of land all fell flat with most independent voters. Those concerned about his legislative record could look at the support of a number of prominent republicans and hope that Obama will not be hasty in abandoning the coalition that he built. While his Republican party support cannot be as easily dismissed as Zell Miller was by Democrats in 2004, many of the people on the list identify more with the dwindling and possibly doomed "Main Street Partnership Branch" and are horrified by the new, supercharged, and envigorated "Sarah Palin Branch". Republicans who have publicly endorsed Obama include: Paul Volker, William Weld, Susan Eisenhower, Colin Powell, Lincoln Chafee, Lowell Weicker, C.C. Goldwater, Michael Smerconish, William Milliken, Charles "Mac" Mathias, Scott McClellan, George Cabot Lodge, Francis Fukuyama, Ken Duberstein, Arne Carlson, Jim Leach, Wayne Gilchrest, Christopher Buckley, and Larry Pressler.